Stock market outlook

*On 20/3/2020 I signalled the first BUY and the index rebounded since then. Two days later, given the huge market volatility underway, I withheld my plan. Over the past few days, the market surged up, showing illogical response to bad news, ignoring the warning of imminent recession to take place, and the announcement of historic high jobless claim in U.S. After all, we must look into the reality. (*Among WhatsApp)

The market provides opportunity for speculative BUY every time after significant drop, but this is, I would say, for short term trading. SELL on every unexplainable upswing, if you are fortunate be able to reap profit.

Under the current situation it is difficult, perhaps impossible to evaluate the market insofar as the company earnings are concerned. The values of various industries are reshuffled. We are aware that the worse is yet to come, but at this stage we cannot ascertain how worst it would be. While the pandemic remains the focus for future development, the world is facing more than global economic downtown. Quite probably international protectionism will emerge - this time far harsh. In Hong Kong, the worries are even fuelled with political turmoil.

Current investment strategy:

-Short term speculative buy only at initial rebound.

-Sell on upswing.

-No medium term forecast.

-Long term unknown, looks bleak.